Market: MVRV Z-Score

MVRV Z-Score uses a z-score standard deviation between market value and realized value to identify market tops and bottoms.

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On-Chain Introduction Collection: This chart is tailored for those new to on-chain analytics who want to learn about key metrics.

Indicator Overview

MVRV Z-Score is a market chart that uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where assets are extremely over or undervalued relative to their 'fair value'.

It uses three metrics:

1. Market Value (black line):

The current price multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets.

2. Realized Value (blue line):

Rather than taking the current price, Realized Value takes the price of each coin when it was last moved. It strips out short term market sentiment and can be seen as a more 'true' long term measure of value.

3. Z-score (orange line):

A standard deviation test that pulls out the extremes in the data between market value and realized value.

How It Can Be Used

The MVRV Z-score has historically been very effective in identifying periods where market value is moving unusually high above realized value. These periods are highlighted by the z-score (orange line) entering the pink box and indicates the top of market cycles.

It also shows when market value is far below realized value, highlighted by z-score entering the green box. Buying during these periods has historically produced outsized returns.

Price Prediction: This chart is useful for predicting price at the extremes of market conditions. Historically it has picked major price highs to within 2 weeks.

Created By

Originally created by @aweandwonder, building on the initial work to create MVRV by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell.

Date Created:November 2018

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