Realized Price
Average price at which all Bitcoin last moved on-chain - measures the aggregate cost basis of all holders
Realized Price
Aggregate cost basis of all Bitcoin holders - key support/resistance level and cycle timing indicator
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Blue line: Market Price | Purple line: Realized Price
Understanding Realized Price: Realized Price is the average price at which each Bitcoin last moved on-chain, representing the aggregate cost basis. When Market Price > Realized Price, the market is in profit. When below, the market is in loss. The ratio has historically marked major cycle tops (> 3.0x) and bottoms (< 0.8x). Realized Price acts as strong support during bear markets.
Price-to-Realized Zones
Historical Performance: Realized Price has served as critical support during every major bear market. Price typically bottoms near or below Realized Price (ratio < 1.0). Major tops occur when Price-to-Realized exceeds 3.0x (Dec 2017, Apr 2021). The metric is foundational for MVRV, NUPL, and Reserve Risk indicators, making it essential for on-chain analysis.
On-Chain Analysis: Aggregate cost basis of all Bitcoin holders
Understanding Realized Price
Realized Price represents the average price at which each Bitcoin last moved on the blockchain. Unlike Market Price which reflects current trading value, Realized Price reflects the actual cost basis of all Bitcoin holders. It's calculated by summing the value of each UTXO (coin) at the time it last moved, then dividing by the total supply.
The relationship between Market Price and Realized Price reveals market psychology. When Price > Realized Price, the market is in aggregate profit (bullish). When Price < Realized Price, the market is in aggregate loss (bearish). The ratio of Price to Realized Price has historically marked major cycle tops (> 3.0) and bottoms (< 0.8).
Realized Price is a fundamental metric developed by Coin Metrics and widely used in on-chain analysis. It acts as a strong support level during bear markets because it represents the collective cost basis. Smart money often accumulates near Realized Price, as it indicates fair value. The metric is also the foundation for MVRV ratio, Reserve Risk, and NUPL indicators.
Key Features:
- • Cost Basis Analysis: Shows the aggregate price at which all holders acquired their Bitcoin.
- • Support & Resistance: Realized Price acts as major support in bears, resistance in early bulls.
- • Profit/Loss Assessment: Price above = aggregate profit, Price below = aggregate loss.
- • Cycle Timing: Ratio extremes (> 3.0 or < 0.8) mark major tops and bottoms.
How to Use Realized Price
As Support Level:
During bear markets, price tends to bottom near or below Realized Price (ratio < 1.0). This represents the collective cost basis and marks strong support. When price returns to Realized Price after being above it, expect significant buying as holders defend their cost basis.
For Cycle Timing:
Price-to-Realized ratio > 3.0 has historically marked major tops (Dec 2017, Apr 2021). Ratio < 0.8 has marked major bottoms (Mar 2020, Dec 2018). These extremes occur when price diverges significantly from the collective cost basis, creating unsustainable conditions.
For Value Assessment:
Ratio 1.0-1.5 represents early bull markets with healthy profit margins. Ratio 1.5-2.0 shows strong bullish conditions but not yet overheated. Use these zones to gauge whether current price reflects fair value relative to holder cost basis.
Combined Analysis:
Compare Realized Price with NUPL, Reserve Risk, and NVT. When price is near Realized Price AND other metrics show undervaluation, conviction increases. When price is far above Realized Price AND other metrics show overvaluation, sell signals strengthen.
Pro Tips:
- • Price/Realized > 3.0 = Extreme euphoria - strong sell
- • Price/Realized 2.0-3.0 = Euphoria - take profits
- • Price/Realized 1.5-2.0 = Bullish - hold
- • Price/Realized 1.0-1.5 = Slightly bullish - accumulate
- • Price/Realized < 1.0 = Market in loss - strong buy
- • Price/Realized < 0.8 = Extreme capitulation - maximum buy
- • Realized Price acts as strong support
- • Rising Realized Price = accumulation at higher prices
- • Falling Realized Price = distribution by long-term holders
- • Best for identifying major cycle extremes
Calculation Methodology
Realized Price is calculated as the sum of (Price when each coin last moved × Amount) divided by total supply. In this implementation, we approximate Realized Price using an exponentially weighted moving average of historical prices, where recent prices are weighted higher to simulate recent on-chain activity. Real implementation requires full UTXO set data. The Price-to-Realized ratio divides current market price by Realized Price, creating a valuation metric similar to MVRV.
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